2014 World Cup qualifier preview: England v San Marino

Roy Hodgson

Ah, San Marino.

A football side so out of their depth, they drowned years ago.

The world’s lowest-ranked international side are in town and their next stop is Wembley.

A full-strength England side lie in wait for a country that only has a population of 30,000 and one professional footballer to its name - defender Mirko Palazzi, who plays for Rimini in Italy’s fourth tier. A mix of barmen, accountants and students, who as a team have only recorded one win in 114 games and conceded 473 goals, will be taking on worldwide footballing juggernauts such as Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard.

Domestic football in San Marino, where all bar Palazzi play their football, is hardly thriving either. Tre Penne, the national champions, took on Luxembourg's F91 Dudelange in a Champions League qualifier in August. Tre Penne lost 11-0 on aggregate.

Quiet at the back.

Wembley Stadium holds 90,000 and will be full to capacity, with England fans expecting their side to rack up a winning margin as big as the official attendance.

In truth, when assessing the betting angles for the game, the match winner market may as well not exist.

There is a stronger chance of Mr Blobby winning Miss World than San Marino leaving Wembley with three historical points. If ever there was a 1.00 shot the Three Lions are it.

For those that possess the mentality to back 1.01 shots (£100 on to win £1), England’s price for this game, your money is obviously safe due to the extraordinarily weak nature of the opposition. Not that the money available on the back side of the market will be bulky enough to accommodate any worthwhile bets due to the layers concluding that England are certainties for the win.

This is not to say that the match will be all rainbows and lollipops for Roy Hodgson’s side. Sure, the match result will go England’s way, but this could be a classic case of the hosts playing with nothing to gain and everything to lose. A sold out Wembley will turn up in their droves, despite the current controversy surrounding the England national side, and will sit with an “entertain me” like attitude. But anyone expected a goal-bonanza may end up disappointed.

Despite the ludicrously easy nature of the game, Hodgson, you would assume, will be using the game as a springboard for the far more competitive Poland qualifier next week. Players won’t be asked to exert all their energy into delivering a good hiding to the minnows. Gaining a win of any sorts, and not losing anyone to injury, will be top of Hodgson’s list of priorities.

With that theory in mind, it is a tad surprising to see England being fancied to run up a cricket score against their woeful opponents.

From their last six competitive games San Marino have only conceded seven goals in the first half of games. In total, they have conceded 31 goals, but 77% of those conceded have been in the second half.

They set-up in games very well drilled in terms of defending their goal, usually in a 6-4-0 formation, and rely on fitness levels to stop the opposition. England could find it hard to break down the Marino wall early-on, especially with a home crowd that will be quick to deliver their thoughts if the more illustrious performers fail to find the net on a regular basis.

You would assume the gaps will appear later on in the game, like they did when San Marino conceded eight second half goals in their 11-0 defeat to Netherlands last year. But England, unlike the Dutch, don’t have the attacking flair to maul an opponent.

Any unquoted scoreline (to score three goals or more) is currently a 1.20 shot and that looks a far from secure bet to get involved with.

Hodgson’s demeanour suggests he’s the type that would drive a Lamborghini with the handbrake on.

Expect his England side to play the same way.

Prediction: England 4 San Marino 0

Lewis Jones

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